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Varying Movement As The Leaves Are Ready To Fall

Welcome to this week’s Beggs on the Used Car Market, with data and insight from Ricky Beggs and Black Book. As we passed through each day with attendance at auctions and watching others online by the editors, it is obvious regarding the interest in the used market while recognizing the overall value movement and the number of no sales, that we are fully engaged in the beginning of the fall market. The only thing that to me was not indicative of a really weaker valuation trend in the market was that 24% of the 1850 vehicles adjusted each day throughout the week were increases to the most recently published values. That is not an overly large level, but it is greater than any week since the week ending July 11, 2014, which came in at 27%. Last year for this time through the first of November the levels ranged from only 9% up to 18%.

 

From the week before last, where gas did not change week over week, the move this past week was the largest change at a decrease of $.05 week over week, since the $.05 increase for the week of April 14, 2014. We are still pleased to see gas $.14 below the same week one year ago. For those pumping diesel fuel there was only a $.01 drop this past week which is also better than last year’s prices by $.17.

 

Taking a look at the truck segments, the overall segment change was at the lowest in the past four weeks at -$45. The Compact and Full-size Pickups showed the most consistency with changes of only -$6. The Mid-size SUVs the past two weeks have shown more consistency with changes of -$20 this past week and -$14 for the prior week. Last week we reported some significant decreases in values in all of the full-size utilities. Each of those had smaller, and more typical changes this past week.

 

When looking at the overall car segment changes, the -$66 drop is pretty consistent with the pattern of changes of the cars over the past eleven weeks. On a more positive note, the Entry Level Cars down by $12 for the week, have been the best in low depreciation over the past three weeks. It is interesting that even with the lowering gas prices all of the four more fuel efficient segments are under the overall segment level change.

 

Since 1999 there has been only one year where cars have outsold the vehicles making up the truck market: the pickups, vans and utilities. This happened just after gas prices hit the all-time record high point, and also when the Cash for Clunkers program was in existence.

 

This past week a couple of the editors got their initial look at the revolutionary built, aluminum bodied 2015 Ford F150. The outward physical appearance isn’t eye opening different, but with a much lighter weight vehicle, the slightly tweaked carryover engines, along with a totally new 2.7L Ecoboost engine, the performance is greater than our expectations. Black Book will be doing much further in-depth analysis as we prepare our initial residual forecasts for the leasing and lending industries.

We are keeping our eyes on the current used market to see if and when the market jumps into full fall mode. I am looking forward to talking with many from the auction and remarketing industry at the annual NAAA convention this week in Boston. In the meantime the Black Book editors and survey personnel hope to see you across the country on the auction lanes.

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Tags: autos, black, book, cars, used, vehicles

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