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|Car Industry Outlook Better Than Many People Think|
The tagline in the 1978 movie “Jaws 2” said, “Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water…”
Recent weeks have been a rollercoaster ride, with high emotions and panic as Wall Street values bounced up and down 400 points a day following the agreement by Congress to raise the debt ceiling another $400 billion.
As inept self-serving politicians flirted with the possibility of complete financial collapse, second-wave recession talk risks spreading fear and uncertainty in every sector of American business, especially the retail automobile industry.
Yet, this industry has been hit hard and bounced back time and again. We will do it again this time.
Some industry analysts are lowering their 2011 and 2012 U.S. light-vehicle sales estimates. One analyst, citing the Standard and Poor’s downgrading of U.S. creditworthiness, adjusted her 2012 projections from 14.7 million units to 13.5 million units.
Excuse me folks, but that ain’t going to happen.
Why? Because the Japanese must regain lost market share as they ramp up to nearly full production in the year’s last quarter. Even before the earthquakes and tsunami in Japan, I’ve been saying for more than a year there was going to be a major incentive war. It would have happened already had the earthquake not hit.
My original thinking edged that way when Hyundai and Kia became serious contenders and Toyota market share began to slide. (continued...)
Read the rest of Jim Ziegler's article at: http://wardsdealer.com/