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Automotive_IRM_Update_August_2013.pdf My friend Rich Aldrich offered up this Automotive Industry Research, an in-depth research. I found it informative. Feel free to get your copy to view.
• July U.S. light vehicle sales of.15.6 million SAAR about matched our estimate and was up 11% YoY but down 1% MoM. Pickups, small cars and CUV’s saw the strongest gains. Canadian sales rose 3% YoY in July on a daily selling rate basis.
• The D3 lost 360bp of share MoM vs. a J3 gain of 270bp, largely reflecting lower D3 fleet sales.
• Our 2013 and 2014 U.S. light vehicle SAAR forecasts remain unchanged at 15.5 and 16.0 million units, respectively.
• Light vehicle unit inventories of 56 days supply in July were down 4 days MoM and up 1 day YoY. Inventories generally appear normal albeit 4 days above the trailing 5 years average for July.
• North American light vehicle production rose 1% YoY in July and is up 3% YT-July. Looking forward, production is expected to rise 4-5% in H2 2013 and 2-3% in 2014.
• Incentive spending rose 10% YoY but fell 2% MoM in July to an average of $2,455 according to Edmunds. J3 incentives generally remain tame despite the weaker Yen, but remain a threat.
• Our weighted PPI index of automotive raw material producer price indices was up 1% MoM and down 2% YoY in July.